【国际经贸学院学术论坛】 6月10日，David S. Jacks（Simon Fraser Univers

【国际经贸学院学术论坛】 6月10日，David S. Jacks（Simon Fraser University）

报告人: David S. Jacks， Simon Fraser University

时间：6月10日，周二，上午10：00-11：30

地点：博学楼1222教室

题目：From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run

摘要：This paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices over 164 years for 40 commodities representing 8.72 trillion US dollars of production in 2011. In so doing, it suggests and documents a comprehensive typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles, and short-run boom/bust episodes. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) real commodity prices have been on the rise—albeit modestly—from 1900; (2) there is a consistent pattern—in both past and present—of commodity price cycles, entailing decades-long positive deviations from long-run trends with the set of currently evolving cycles likely having reached their peak; (3) these commodity price cycles are themselves punctuated by boom/bust episodes which are historically pervasive, exacerbated during periods of freely floating nominal exchange rates, and highly relevant for the growth experience of commodity exporting nations.

演讲人简介：http://www.sfu.ca/~djacks/